For 16-31 March the refining margin was US$8.6/bbl due to the shutdown of 1.4mbpd refining capacity in Japan. In 4QFY11 it was US$7.4 compared with US$5.5 in 3QFY11, on continued strength in middle-distillate cracks. Based on average global gasoil and gasoline prices during 16-31 March, auto-fuel under-recoveries for 1-15 Apr are likely to be `14.1/litre since losses on diesel rose to `15.8/litre.
n Strength in refining margins continues. The refining margin for 16-31 March was US$8.6/bbl due to the shutdown of 1.4mbpd refining capacity in Japan. For 4QFY11 it is US$7.4 compared with US$5.5 in 3QFY11, on the continued strength in middle-distillate cracks. We estimate that margin would average US$4.75/bbl in FY12 and US$5.5 in FY13. The Brent-Dubai spread was strong at US$6.4/bbl, up US$1.1 from the previous fortnight, adding to complex refiners' margins.
n Auto-fuel losses zoom. Based on average global gasoil and gasoline prices during 16-31 March, auto-fuel under-recoveries for 1-15 April are likely to be `14.1/litre vs. `13.7 the previous fortnight as losses on diesel rose to `15.8/litre. We estimate an auto-fuel breakeven crude price at US$74.5/bbl, flat from the previous fortnight.
n Crude price rally continues on Mid-East concerns. For 16-31 March, Brent crude was US$114.9/bbl, up US$0.9 from the previous fortnight, on account of the unrest in the Middle East that could trigger supply disruptions in crude oil.
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
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