Euro-Zone Economic Confidence Slumps to Record Low on Global Recession

Written by David Song, Currency Analyst, Geng Chen, DailyFX Research

Economic confidence in the Euro-Zone fell to its lowest level since recordkeeping began in 1985 as the index plunged to 67.1 from 74.9 in November and unemployment rate increased to a two-year high of 7.8%, which suggests that the real economy is now feeling the spillover effects from the financial crisis.

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EURUSD – Economic confidence in the Euro-Zone fell to its lowest level since recordkeeping began in 1985 as the index plunged to 67.1 from 74.9 in November. As a result, the consumer confidence index slipped to -30 from -25 amid expectations for a 1 point drop to -26, while sentiment among businesses fell to -3.17 from a revised reading of -2.10 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate increased to a two-year high of 7.8% from 7.7% in October, which suggests that the real economy is now feeling the spillover effects from the financial crisis, and will likely push the jobless rate higher this year as financial uncertainties linger. Furthermore, the final GDP reading for the third quarter was confirmed at -0.2%, while the annual rate of growth held steady at 0.6%. Nevertheless, German factory orders plunged another 6.0% in November, which was followed by a 6.3% decline in the previous month, and conditions are likely to get worse as demands from home and abroad falter. The data reflects a dour outlook for the 16 economies operating under the euro, and may lead the European Central Bank to ease policy further over the coming months as growth prospects deteriorate at a record pace. Discuss the topic and your trade ideas in the EUR/USD Forum.

CHFUSD – Price growth in Switzerland slowed more than expected as it fell to its lowest level in 15 months. The consumer price index slipped 0.5% after falling 0.7% in previous month, which lowered the annual rate of inflation to 0.7% from 1.5% in November. The breakdown of the report showed that energy prices dropped another 8.0% following an 8.2% contraction in the previous month, while transportation costs fell 1.9% during the month. Meanwhile, Switzerland’s unemployment rate increased to 2.8% from 2.7% in November as fading demands from the home and abroad led companies to scale back production and employment. Easing price pressures would allow the Swiss National Bank to leave borrowing costs at 0.50% for a longer duration in response to the economic downturn, and may decide to ease policy further as policymakers expect economic activity to deteriorate throughout 2009. For more news and resources, visit the new Swiss franc Currency Room.
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