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Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's break of 106.95 confirms resumption of medium term rally. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen to 61.8% projection of 83.85 to 106.95 from 96.22 at 110.49 next. Break will target 100% projection of 64.23 to 92.58 from 83.85 at 112.20. On the downside, below 106.30 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But strong support should be seen from 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 104.94) to contain downside and bring another rise.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 33.2 is still in progress and stronger rise should be seen towards 100% projection of 33.2 to 83.95 from 64.23 at 114.98. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that such rally is the second wave of the consolidation pattern from that started at 147.27 (2008 high). Hence, we'd start to look for reversal signal again above 114.98 projection level. But after all, 83.85 support is needed to indicate medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.
In the long term picture, rebound from 33.2 might not be finished yet. But overall view remains unchanged. Crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave from there unfolding. Decisive break of 83.85 support will confirm that the second wave is finished too and the third wave, which is a downward wave, should have started.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Weekly Chart
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract Monthly Chart